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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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