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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd